Dividend Smoothing and Predictability

Dividend Smoothing and Predictability

The relative predictability of returns and dividends is a central issue because it forms the paradigm to interpret asset price variation. A little studied question is how dividend smoothing, as a choice of corporate policy, affects predictability. We show that even if dividends are supposed to be predictable without smoothing, dividend smoothing can bury this predictability. Because aggregate d...

Founding Family Ownership and Dividend Smoothing

This paper examines the relation between ownership structure and dividend smoothing by comparing the degree of dividend smoothing engaged in by family and non-family firms. We expect family firms to exhibit less dividend smoothing behaviour than non-family firms due to lower agency conflicts and less information asymmetry experienced by family firms. Based on a sample of S&P 500 firms from 1997...

Do Investors Value Dividend-Smoothing Stocks Differently?

It is almost an article of faith that managers have a preference for smooth dividends. Yet, it is not clear if this reflects investors’ preferences. In this paper, we study whether investors indeed value dividend smoothing stocks differently by exploring the implications of dividend smoothing for firms’ stock prices and cost of capital. Using over 80 years of data, we find no robust relationshi...

Stock Return Predictability and Dividend-Price Ratio: A Nonlinear Approach

This paper examines the forecasting ability of the dividend-price ratio for international stock market returns. Hitherto, existing research has only considered this issue in-sample and in a linear framework. Hence, this paper provides the first systematic study of non-linear forecasting within the present value model context. Using an asymmetric variant of the popular ESTR model we demonstrate ...

Dividend Smoothing, Agency Costs, and Information Asymmetry: Lessons from the Dividend Policies of Private Firms